Product Keynote: Kalshi

Prediction markets are going global and on-chain, and Kalshi is leading the charge. At Breakpoint 2025, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Crypto, unveiled the company's ambitious transformation from a US-focused off-chain application to a comprehensive global platform bridging traditional finance and blockchain technology—with Solana at the center of this expansion.

Summary

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Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, is undergoing a significant evolution that positions it at the intersection of traditional finance and decentralized technology. Since John Wang joined the company a few months ago, trading volume has increased eightfold, and the app has consistently hit the number one spot in the app store nearly every week.

The company's new strategy centers on becoming what Wang describes as "a global on-chain and off-chain platform." This approach creates a unique competitive advantage: Kalshi is the only prediction market in the world with a single liquidity pool that combines on-chain and off-chain trading, serving both US and international users. This unified liquidity model represents a significant moat against competitors.

The Solana integration has already begun bearing fruit, with Jupiter being the first to launch tokenized predictions powered by Kalshi. Users can now trade prediction markets in a "crypto-native seamless manner" directly from their self-custodial wallets. The announcement of a partnership with Phantom wallet—one of the largest crypto wallets globally—marks a major milestone, featuring native integration on Phantom's homepage.

To accelerate ecosystem development, Kalshi has committed $2 million in grants for builders creating applications on top of their platform. Wang expressed particular excitement about verticalized frontends targeting specific niches like weather trading, esports, and political markets.

Key Points:

The Platform Play: From App to Infrastructure

Kalshi's strategic pivot reflects a broader pattern seen across successful crypto projects. Wang drew parallels to platforms like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun, which have achieved massive growth by enabling wide-ranging digital distribution through their infrastructure. By opening up their liquidity and data layer to builders, Kalshi is positioning itself not just as a destination for prediction market trading, but as the foundational infrastructure upon which an entire ecosystem can be built.

The platform approach unlocks new possibilities that go far beyond simple market speculation. Builders can now create volts (vaults), perpetual contracts on prediction markets with leverage, permissionless markets, lending protocols using long-dated prediction market positions as collateral, and even AI agents that make prediction trading more accessible to mainstream users.

Regulatory Advantage and the Future of Prediction Markets

Wang made a bold claim about the direction of the prediction market industry: "No one is building offshore crypto prediction markets anymore." The reasoning is straightforward—regulated exchanges are the only ones capable of securing massive broker integrations with platforms like Robinhood and DraftKings-owned PrizePicks. These partnerships are essential for bringing prediction markets to mainstream audiences.

This regulatory positioning gives Kalshi a unique advantage in the market. While early prediction market experiments in crypto operated in regulatory gray areas, the future clearly belongs to compliant exchanges that can integrate with traditional financial infrastructure while still offering the benefits of blockchain technology like self-custody and transparency.

Phantom Partnership and Consumer-Facing Innovation

The partnership with Phantom represents a significant step in making prediction markets accessible to crypto-native users. Kalshi markets will appear directly on Phantom's homepage, offering users access to markets spanning crypto prices, sports outcomes, political events, and even cultural predictions like Time Magazine's Person of the Year.

Phantom has also introduced live chat functionality, allowing users to discuss and trade prediction markets with friends simultaneously. This social element could prove crucial in driving engagement and creating viral growth, transforming prediction markets from a solitary trading activity into a shared experience.

The Builder Ecosystem and $2 Million Grant Program

Kalshi's $2 million grant program is designed to foster a diverse ecosystem of specialized applications. Wang highlighted several examples already in development: weather trading terminals built by meteorology experts featuring low-latency data streams and localized feeds, esports frontends, Twitter/X overlays with browser extensions, and Telegram bots bringing prediction markets to messaging platforms.

These verticalized frontends represent a new model for prediction market distribution—instead of trying to serve all users through a single interface, specialized builders can create tailored experiences for specific communities and use cases, all powered by Kalshi's underlying liquidity and settlement infrastructure.

Media Integration and Mainstream Adoption

Beyond trading, Wang emphasized that approximately 90% of people interact with prediction markets in a "read-only manner"—using them as information sources rather than trading venues. Kalshi has recognized this opportunity, announcing exclusive partnerships with CNN and CNBC to integrate prediction market data into daily news coverage.

This dual value proposition—trading for experts and information for everyone else—positions prediction markets as a fundamental improvement in how society aggregates and communicates probabilistic information about future events.

Facts + Figures

• Kalshi's trading volume has increased eightfold since John Wang joined as Head of Crypto a few months ago
• The Kalshi app has reached the number one position in the app store nearly every week recently
• Kalshi is offering $2 million in grants to builders creating applications on top of their platform
• Jupiter was the first platform to launch tokenized predictions powered by Kalshi on Solana
• Phantom wallet integration places Kalshi markets directly on the wallet's homepage
• Kalshi has announced exclusive partnerships with CNN and CNBC for media integration
• Kalshi claims to be the only prediction market with a unified liquidity pool spanning on-chain, off-chain, US, and international trading
• Approximately 90% of prediction market users interact in a read-only capacity, according to Wang
• The platform supports markets across crypto, sports, politics, weather, and cultural events
• Builders are developing specialized frontends including weather trading terminals, esports platforms, Twitter bots, and Telegram integrations

Top Quotes

• "Kalshi is the only prediction market in the world that has on-chain, off-chain, US and international, all feeding into one big global liquidity pool."

• "No one is building offshore crypto prediction markets anymore."

• "You can only get these massive broker integrations with people such as Robinhood or PrizePicks through compliant exchanges."

• "Everyone is an expert on something and prediction markets allow you to trade on the knowledge that you know the best."

• "We're excited to see prediction markets and Kalshi getting more and more embedded into the daily lives of people."

• "Tokenized trading is kind of just the start for Kalshi on-chain."

• "We have this huge liquidity layer and data pieces that are able to be used freely by builders to build new on-chain primitives."

Questions Answered

What makes Kalshi different from other prediction markets?

Kalshi stands out as the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange that combines on-chain and off-chain liquidity into a single global pool. This means whether you're trading through their traditional app, through Jupiter on Solana, or through the new Phantom integration, you're accessing the same deep liquidity pool. This regulatory status also allows Kalshi to partner with major brokers like Robinhood, giving them distribution advantages that unregulated competitors cannot match.

How can I trade Kalshi markets on Solana?

Kalshi markets are now available as tokenized positions through Jupiter and DeFlow on Solana. You can trade directly from your self-custodial wallet in what the company describes as a "crypto-native seamless manner." The new Phantom wallet integration makes this even more accessible, with Kalshi markets featured directly on Phantom's homepage. Users can trade on outcomes ranging from crypto prices to sports results to political events.

What is the Kalshi grants program and who can apply?

Kalshi has allocated $2 million in grants for builders creating applications on top of their platform. The program is particularly focused on verticalized frontends—specialized trading interfaces targeting specific niches like weather markets, esports, or political prediction. Examples of projects already in development include weather trading terminals built by meteorology experts, esports frontends, Twitter overlay tools, and Telegram bots.

Why does Kalshi believe regulated prediction markets will dominate?

According to Wang, the prediction market industry is clearly moving toward regulated exchanges as the primary model. The key reason is that massive broker integrations with platforms like Robinhood and PrizePicks are only possible through compliant exchanges. These partnerships provide access to mainstream audiences that offshore or unregulated platforms simply cannot reach. This regulatory moat, combined with deep liquidity, creates a sustainable competitive advantage.

What new primitives can be built on top of Kalshi's infrastructure?

The Kalshi liquidity layer enables a range of new on-chain applications. Builders can create vaults, perpetual contracts with leverage on prediction market outcomes using oracle prices, permissionless markets, and lending protocols that accept long-dated prediction market positions as collateral (unlocking idle capital). AI agents that help users trade predictions more effectively are also being developed, making the markets more accessible to mainstream users.

How is Kalshi integrating with mainstream media?

Kalshi has announced exclusive partnerships with CNN and CNBC to integrate prediction market data into their news coverage. This reflects the company's understanding that most people interact with prediction markets as information sources rather than trading venues—approximately 90% of users engage in a read-only capacity. By embedding into daily news cycles, Kalshi aims to become a standard reference for probabilistic assessments of future events.