Fireside: Anchorage Digital (Sergio Mello), Solana Foundation (Nick Ducoff)

Anchorage Digital's Head of Stablecoins made a bold prediction at Breakpoint 2025: stablecoins will reach into the trillions of dollars by the end of 2026, with Solana positioned as the institutional-grade blockchain winning the lion's share of that growth. In a revealing fireside chat with Solana Foundation's Nick Ducoff, Sergio Mello outlined how the company that began as a custody solution has become the only federally regulated stablecoin issuer in the United States—and why that matters for the future of global finance.

Summary

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The conversation centered on the transformative moment stablecoins are experiencing, driven by regulatory clarity from the Genius Act in the United States. Sergio Mello painted a picture of a financial system on the verge of fundamental change, where tens of trillions of dollars currently sitting in traditional bank deposits will migrate on-chain over the next five years.

Anchorage Digital has positioned itself at the center of this transformation through its "stablecoin as a service" platform, which provides the complete infrastructure for institutions to issue and manage stablecoins. The company holds a federal banking license—a rare achievement for a crypto company—and has already partnered with major names including Tether (for USAT), Athena (for USDTB), and Western Union (for USDPT, launching on Solana first).

Perhaps most striking was Mello's description of the shift in market dynamics: until July 2025, he was making outbound calls trying to convince institutions to adopt stablecoins. Since then, he's been fielding incoming calls from banks and financial institutions eager to understand how to participate in this new paradigm.

The conversation also touched on the global regulatory race, with Mello warning that sovereign nations have approximately six to twelve months to establish stablecoin regulations or risk being left behind in what he compared to missing out on connecting to the global phone or internet system.

Key Points:

Anchorage Digital's Evolution and Unique Position

Anchorage Digital began eight years ago with a singular mission: provide institutional-grade custody for digital assets. This foundation has expanded into a comprehensive platform offering trading, staking, settlements, and most recently, stablecoin services. The company achieved a significant milestone by obtaining a federal banking license in the US—a regulatory accomplishment that positions it uniquely in the crypto space.

This federal charter allows Anchorage to issue stablecoins under existing regulatory frameworks, even before the Genius Act's rulemaking is complete. This head start has attracted major partners looking for compliant infrastructure. The company operates exclusively for institutional clients, providing the settlement infrastructure needed for cross-border, cross-chain, and fiat-to-crypto operations that large financial institutions require.

The Genius Act and Global Regulatory Competition

The passing of the Genius Act represents what Mello called "probably the best thing the US government has done in terms of power projection and assertion of the USD monetary policy globally." The results have been immediate and measurable, with Tether—the world's largest stablecoin issuer—launching a US-compliant stablecoin (USAT) through Anchorage in direct response.

The act has created a new category of "Genius-ready" stablecoins that meet specific backing requirements, including approved asset classes like short-term treasuries. USDTB, for example, is backed by BlackRock's BUIDL money market fund, creating a direct connection between traditional finance's largest asset manager and on-chain liquidity.

Mello issued a stark warning to international regulators: jurisdictions that don't establish stablecoin frameworks within the next six to twelve months will be "literally left out"—comparing the stakes to a country lacking connection to the global phone or internet infrastructure.

Why Institutions Are Choosing Solana

Western Union's recent announcement that they chose Solana for their stablecoin specifically because it was "the institutional grade chain purpose built for a use case like Western Union" exemplifies a broader trend. According to Mello, institutions coming to Anchorage for infrastructure increasingly arrive with Solana already selected as their preferred blockchain.

This preference stems from years of groundwork by the Solana ecosystem to educate and advocate for institutional blockchain adoption. The technical capabilities—instant settlement, low costs, and high throughput—align perfectly with the requirements of global financial institutions processing massive transaction volumes.

The Future of On-Chain Foreign Exchange

Beyond US dollar stablecoins, Mello predicted a transformation in the global foreign exchange market. He expects to see dozens, potentially hundreds, of non-USD currency stablecoins emerge as sovereign nations recognize the strategic importance of having their currencies available on-chain.

The implications are particularly significant for exotic currency pairs, which currently suffer from settlement delays of several days, wide spreads, and substantial counterparty risk. On-chain settlement eliminates these inefficiencies because "transfer equals settlement"—the moment a token moves, the transaction is complete. Mello envisions a mature on-chain FX market for major currency pairs by end of 2026 and a solid alternative to the exotic FX market by end of 2027.

The Jupiter-USDTB-BlackRock Connection

A concrete example of stablecoin composability was demonstrated through the Jupiter ecosystem. USDTB, issued by Anchorage for Athena, provides backing for Jupiter's JupyUSD. This creates a chain of value: JupyUSD is effectively backed by BlackRock's BUIDL money market fund through USDTB, bringing institutional-grade backing to DeFi applications.

This composability—the ability to build new applications and utilities with "a few lines of code" on top of existing stablecoin infrastructure—represents the core value proposition of bringing dollars on-chain. It allows projects like Jupiter to leverage Anchorage's compliance work and Athena's liquidity expertise while focusing on their application layer.

Facts + Figures

• Anchorage Digital is the only federally regulated stablecoin issuer in the United States as of December 2025, operating under a federal bank charter

• The company's stablecoin partners include Tether (USAT), Athena (USDTB), and Western Union (USDPT), with additional announcements expected

• USDTB will launch on Solana "next week or the week after" from the date of this talk

• USDTB is fully backed by BlackRock's BUIDL money market fund, making it Genius Act compliant

• Western Union's stablecoin (USDPT) will launch on Solana first, chosen because it was deemed "institutional grade"

• Mello predicts stablecoin market capitalization will reach into the trillions by the end of 2026

• The shift from outbound sales to inbound inquiries occurred in July 2025, marking a clear market inflection point

• Mello projects tens of trillions of dollars currently in bank deposits will move on-chain over the next five years

• A mature on-chain FX market for major currency pairs is expected by end of 2026

• Sovereign nations have 6-12 months to establish stablecoin regulations or risk being "left out"

• The UAE's ADGM and central bank are cited as regulatory leaders outside the US

Top Quotes

"Stablecoins are beautiful because they settle instantly in transfer. The transfer equals settlement."

"Any sovereign state and regulator that does not come together in regulating stablecoins within the next six to 12 months will be literally left out."

"I was the one making the calls and tried to convince people to do stable coins until July this year. And then from July to now, I'm the one who has received the calls to explain how to launch their stable coin."

"We'll see tens of trillions of dollars of money supplied, the broad money that today is in bank deposits, shifting on chain on Solana."

"Genius is probably the best thing the US government has done in terms of power projection and assertion of the USD monetary policy globally."

"Institutions coming to Anchorage for infrastructure already have a choice for blockchain. And that is Solana."

"All these phenomenon are exponential. They are slow until they hit the acoustic moment and then it happens very fast."

"The beauty is that they can serve use cases for retail, for small businesses, and for the largest asset managers all at once."

"JupyUSD is effectively backed by BlackRock's BUIDL. That's exactly the full composition of the stack."

"It is only towards the end of next year that we will see the real institutional adoption. And that's where we talk trillions and no longer hundreds of billions."

Questions Answered

What is stablecoin as a service and why does it matter?

Stablecoin as a service is a comprehensive platform that provides all the infrastructure needed for institutions to issue and manage stablecoins. This includes the compliance framework, minting capabilities, settlement systems, and cross-border transaction processing. Anchorage Digital offers this under their federal banking license, which means institutions can launch compliant stablecoins without building the regulatory and technical infrastructure themselves. This dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for traditional financial institutions wanting to participate in the on-chain economy.

How is JupyUSD connected to BlackRock?

JupyUSD, Jupiter's stablecoin, is backed by USDTB, which is a stablecoin issued by Anchorage Digital for Athena. USDTB itself is fully collateralized by BlackRock's BUIDL money market fund, which consists of short-term US treasuries. This creates a direct chain of custody from one of the world's largest asset managers through compliant stablecoin infrastructure to a DeFi application. It demonstrates how composability allows institutional-grade backing to flow into decentralized finance applications through layers of stablecoin infrastructure.

Why are institutions choosing Solana for stablecoin issuance?

Institutions are selecting Solana because it has established itself as the "institutional grade chain" purpose-built for high-volume financial use cases. Western Union explicitly cited this when announcing their stablecoin would launch on Solana first. Years of ecosystem development focused on institutional education and advocacy have built trust among traditional financial players. The chain's technical capabilities—instant finality, low transaction costs, and high throughput—match the requirements of global payment networks processing millions of daily transactions.

What happens to countries that don't regulate stablecoins?

Countries that fail to establish stablecoin regulatory frameworks within the next six to twelve months risk severe economic disadvantage, comparable to not having connections to global telephone or internet infrastructure. Without clear regulations, their domestic financial institutions cannot participate in the emerging on-chain economy, their local currencies won't be available as stablecoins, and their citizens and businesses will default to using foreign currency stablecoins (likely US dollar denominated). This effectively cedes monetary policy influence to countries that have embraced stablecoin regulation.

How will stablecoins transform the foreign exchange market?

Stablecoins will revolutionize FX trading by eliminating settlement risk and delays. Currently, only major "hard" currencies benefit from quick settlement through systems like CLS, while exotic currency pairs face multi-day settlement periods, wide spreads, and significant counterparty risk. When currencies exist as stablecoins, transfers settle instantly because the token transfer itself constitutes final settlement. This will dramatically reduce costs and risks for exotic currency trading, potentially creating a robust on-chain alternative to traditional FX markets by 2027.

What did the Genius Act actually change for stablecoins?

The Genius Act established clear regulatory requirements for stablecoin issuance in the United States, including approved backing asset classes like short-term treasuries. This created the category of "Genius-ready" or "Genius-compliant" stablecoins that meet federal standards. The immediate effect was that even Tether, the largest global stablecoin issuer operating primarily offshore, moved to launch a US-compliant stablecoin through Anchorage. The act is described as an assertion of US monetary policy power globally, as it encourages the world's financial activity to flow through compliant USD stablecoins.

When will institutional stablecoin adoption really take off?

According to Sergio Mello, the next six months through mid-2026 will primarily see regulatory frameworks solidifying, with US Treasury and OCC completing their rulemaking for the Genius Act and foreign regulators establishing reciprocal frameworks. Real institutional adoption at scale—measured in trillions rather than hundreds of billions—will materialize toward the end of 2026. The current period represents the "slow" phase of exponential adoption, but once regulatory clarity is complete, adoption will accelerate rapidly as the question shifts from "if" to "when."